2014/15 Quarter-season report card, part 1

Because we just passed match day 9 (of 34) in the Bundesliga, and we’re halfway through the group stages in the Champions League, I thought a good place to start things here at Professor Dortmund would be to do a series of posts reviewing the season to this point. We’ll start today with an overall report on where the team is, and a look at the factors that have most influenced the team to this point. The next few posts will be about the contributions of some of the individual players on the team, starting with the newer arrivals, and continuing with the old hands.

Overall Summary - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

Record: 2 – 1 – 6, 7 points, 15^th in the Bundesliga (BL).

10 Goals scored (13^th in BL), 15 goals allowed (14^th in BL).

Obviously, not a very good start to the Bundesliga season so far.  With only 7 points from 9 matches, Dortmund are averaging .78 points/game, on pace for 26 points for the season, their lowest point total since they narrowly avoided relegation in the 85/86 season (finishing that year with 28 points). In domestic play, problems are everywhere so far this season (we’ll get to the Champions League later). On defense, the club is giving up 1.67 goals/game, on pace for 57 goals for the season. In attack, Dortmund is only scoring 1.11 goals per match, for a prorated total of 38 goals.

I compared the team’s goals for/against records so far this season to the last four years, capping it off with their Bundesliga title win in 2010/11. Any totals for this year reflect the current rate prorated for an entire 34 game season. 

A few things about this jump out at me. First, looking at the data like this causes me to have a little more respect for the Bayern Munich sides of the last two seasons. Last year Dortmund were only four points off their title winning season of 10/11, and yet still lost the league to Bayern by 19 points.

Another thing that jumps out is how good those Klopp led title-winning sides were at defending. 25 goals allowed would be the third best record in the league this season. Dortmund’s fate seems to track with their defensive record.

At any rate, let’s focus on this year. After three very good attacking seasons, and one decent one, Dortmund can’t seem to find the back of the net this year. The current goal-scoring rate is by far the worst the team has experienced under the management of Jurgen Klopp. In Klopp’s six seasons before this, the lowest goals for value was 54, with five of his six seasons producing at least 60 goals. The same is true on defense – the highest goals allowed figure for Dortmund under Klopp was 42 (in both the 09/10 and 12/13 seasons).

So, from a birds-eye view, the basic numbers confirm that something is amiss at Signal Iduna Park. I’m going to discuss several factors that I believe are contributing to difficulties the team is having, and some of them are going to be tough to fix easily. Still, I think there is room for optimism; even though we’re past the quarter mark of the season, I think there are two data points that suggest we’re due for improvement. First, while Dortmund haven’t done a great job of replacing some of the key players who have departed over the last few seasons, a lot of the current record is likely a case of bad luck. Second, Dortmund in the Champions Leagues have thus far left a trail of devastation in their wake, suggesting how good they can be if things start to click.

I’m going to sign off for now; in part 2, I’ll talk about some of the factors that may be responsible for the performance thus far. In part 3, I’ll talk about the Champion’s League performance and close with a summary.